Bo Nix
2025 Season Ground Truthnflverse official · 17 GP · 17 starts
3,931
Pass YDS
231.2/G · 8th
25
Pass TD
1.47/G · T-9th
11
INT
1.8% INT%
63.4%
Cmp %
388/612 · T-1st
356
Rush YDS
83 car · 5 TD
30
Total TD
25P · 5R
17
Starts
17 GP · T-1st
Career Evolution2 seasons (2024–2025)
3,775
2024 YDS
222.1/G
3,931
2025 YDS
231.2/G
7,706
Career YDS
226.6/G
29 / 25
Pass TD
54 total
12 / 11
INT
23 total
+9.1
YPG Δ
YoY
R1·P12
2024 Draft
by DEN
The read: Nix cleared 229.5 in 8 of 17 starts last year (47%). The 270+ (+7.3% edge) and 300+ (+8.6% edge) rungs are the value — the market is hammering his ceiling down while the empirical hit rate holds. Tap any rung or ask the desk.
Passing Yards by Game
17 Regular Season Starts vs Week 1 Line (~229.5 YDS)
Line: 229.5 YDS
W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W13W14W15W16W17W18
Passing Yards
231.2
8 of 17 over 229.5 (47.1%)
Passing TDs
1.47
14 of 17 with 1+ TD (82.4%)
Anytime TD (Rush)
23.5%
4 of 17 games · 83 carries
Passing Yards
↳ ask deskExchange Price vs 2025 Hit Rate · tap a rung to ask
| Milestone | Kalshi Ask | DraftKings | DK Implied | 2025 Hits | Empirical % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160+ Yds | 87¢ | −1020 | 91.0% | 14 / 17 | 82.4% | −8.6% |
| 170+ Yds | 80¢ | −690 | 87.3% | 14 / 17 | 82.4% | −4.9% |
| 200+ Yds | 67¢ | −254 | 71.7% | 10 / 17 | 58.8% | −12.9% |
| 230+ Yds | 53¢ | −108 | 51.9% | 8 / 17 | 47.1% | −4.8% |
| 250+ Yds | 37¢ | +156 | 39.0% | 6 / 17 | 35.3% | −3.7% |
| 270+ Yds | 25¢ | +257 | 28.0% | 6 / 17 | 35.3% | +7.3% |
| 300+ Yds | 14¢ | +569 | 14.9% | 4 / 17 | 23.5% | +8.6% |
| 320+ Yds | 11¢ | +970 | 9.3% | 3 / 17 | 17.6% | +8.3% |
| 350+ Yds | 6¢ | +1980 | 4.8% | 1 / 17 | 5.9% | +1.1% |
Live odds from DraftKings API (Event 34118255, Market 334622474) and Kalshi CLOB (KXNFLPASSYDS-26SEP14DENKC). Main line devigs to 50.43% Over / 49.57% Under (4.54% hold).
Passing Touchdowns
↳ ask deskMarket Price vs 2025 Hit Rate · tap a rung to ask
| Milestone | Kalshi Ask | DraftKings | DK Implied | 2025 Cleared | Hit Rate | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ Pass TD | 75¢ | −420 | 80.7% | 14 / 17 | 82.4% | +1.7% |
| 2+ Pass TDs | 36¢ | +140 | 41.6% | 6 / 17 | 35.3% | −6.3% |
| 3+ Pass TDs | 15¢ | +584 | 14.6% | 3 / 17 | 17.6% | +3.0% |
| 4+ Pass TDs | 5¢ | +2100 | 4.5% | 2 / 17 | 11.8% | +7.3% |
Settles Yes on touchdown passes thrown by the QB. DraftKings Market 334623035 and Kalshi KXNFLPASSTDS.
Matchup Week 1
@ Kansas City Chiefs
Mon Sep 14 · Arrowhead Stadium
2025 Average231.2 YDS/G (#8)
KC Pass D Allowed205.1 YDS/G (#13)
Consensus Line229.5 yds
SpreadDEN +3.0 (-120)
Game Total43.5 (-110)
Volume Concentration by Ladder Tier
Kalshi CLOB lifetime volume · KXNFLPASSYDS-26SEP14DENKC
| Strike | Yes Ask | Lifetime Vol | Share | 24h Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150+ | 92¢ | 168 | 31.1% | |
| 175+ | 84¢ | 54 | 4.2% | |
| 200+ | 67¢ | 31 | 0.0% | |
| 225+ | 53¢ | 18 | 0.0% | |
| 250+ | 37¢ | 94 | 32.3% | |
| 275+ | 9¢ | 41 | 1.1% | |
| 300+ | 15¢ | 762 | 30.2% | |
| 325+ | 8¢ | 22 | 0.6% | |
| 350+ | 6¢ | 14 | 0.5% |
Lifetime volume 1,354 contracts across 9 rungs. The 300+ tier is the volume magnet — 56.3% of all flow. Fresh 24h money rotated to the 250+ (32.3%) and 150+ floor (31.1%).
Line Movement & Book Pressure
Last price vs prior · resting bid/ask skew
| Strike | Last | Move | Book Pressure | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150+ | 92¢ | flat | bid 64% | |
| 175+ | 84¢ | flat | bid 98% | |
| 200+ | 67¢ | flat | bid 58% | |
| 225+ | 53¢ | flat | ask 53% | |
| 250+ | 22¢ | ▼42% | ask 87% | |
| 275+ | 9¢ | ▼65% | ask 97% | |
| 300+ | 15¢ | flat | bid 75% | |
| 325+ | 8¢ | flat | ask 96% | |
| 350+ | 6¢ | ▲20% | ask 98% |
Momentum = last trade vs prior. Read: the market is hammering Nix's ceiling down (275+ ▼65%, 250+ ▼42%), buyers defending floor & longshot, sellers walling the top.
The Drip · NFL. Bo Nix live DraftKings ladders (event 34118255) and Kalshi CLOB (KXNFLPASSYDS/PASSTDS-26SEP14DENKC), Denver @ Kansas City. 2025 actuals from nflverse. Informational only. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.