Bo Nix — Broncos QB | Kalshi Passing Yards Per Game, Real Order Book & Prop Odds

Passing Yards Per Game — Implied Probability Curve Series KXNFLPASSYDS-26SEP14DENKC · Real Ask / Last Prices

87¢

80¢

68¢

54¢

38¢

26¢

15¢

11¢

6¢

150+175+200+ 225+250+275+ 300+325+350+

Market Median (P50)

~228

225+ @ 54¢ Ask · 250+ @ 38¢ Ask

YDS/G Average

231.2

3,931 Total · 17 GP

Empirical Edge Peak

+9.5%

Anytime TD (23.5% vs 14¢)

1. Passing Yards Per Game Ladder (KXNFLPASSYDS) Kalshi Binary Rungs vs 2025 Empirical Hit Rate & DraftKings Lines

Contract Milestone	Kalshi Bid / Ask	Implied %	2025 Hits	Empirical %	DraftKings	Market Read
150+ Passing YDS	75¢ / 87¢	87.0%	16 of 17	94.1%	160+ (-1020)	+7.1%
175+ Passing YDS	66¢ / 80¢	80.0%	12 of 17	70.6%	170+ (-690)	-9.4%
200+ Passing YDS	53¢ / 68¢	68.0%	10 of 17	58.8%	200+ (-254)	-9.2%
225+ Passing YDS	38¢ / 54¢	54.0%	8 of 17	47.1%	230+ (-108)	-6.9%
250+ Passing YDS	22¢ / 38¢	38.0%	6 of 17	35.3%	250+ (+156)	-2.7% (Fair)
275+ Passing YDS	9¢ / 26¢	26.0%	6 of 17	35.3%	270+ (+257)	+9.3%
300+ Passing YDS	6¢ / 15¢	15.0%	4 of 17	23.5%	300+ (+569)	+8.5%
325+ Passing YDS	6¢ / 11¢	11.0%	2 of 17	11.8%	320+ (+970)	+0.8%
350+ Passing YDS	5¢ / 6¢	6.0%	1 of 17	5.9%	350+ (+1980)	-0.1%

250+ Strike Note: Kalshi asks 38¢ (with 1,908 resting contracts), matching DraftKings' +156 (39.0% raw implied) and his true 2025 hit frequency (35.3%) closely.

2. Passing Touchdowns Ladder (KXNFLPASSTDS) Touchdown Passes Thrown · Hit Frequency & Pricing

Milestone Strike	Kalshi Bid / Ask	Kalshi Implied	2025 Games Cleared	2025 Hit Rate	DraftKings	Empirical Edge
1+ Pass TD	69¢ / 75¢	75.0%	14 of 17	82.4%	-420 (80.7%)	+7.4%
2+ Pass TDs	35¢ / 36¢	36.0%	6 of 17	35.3%	+140 (41.6%)	-0.7% (Fair)
3+ Pass TDs	0¢ / 15¢	15.0%	3 of 17	17.6%	+584 (14.6%)	+2.6%
4+ Pass TDs	0¢ / 5¢	5.0%	2 of 17	11.8%	+2100 (4.5%)	+6.8%

Settlement Rule: KXNFLPASSTDS resolves to Yes ONLY on touchdown passes thrown by the QB. 2+ Pass TDs book is liquid with 35¢ bid / 36¢ ask.

3. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (KXNFLTD) Individual Touchdowns Scored (Rushing / Receiving)

Player Prop	Kalshi Bid / Ask	Kalshi Implied	2025 Games Scored	2025 Hit Rate	DraftKings	Empirical Edge
1+ Anytime TD (Bo Nix)	10¢ / 14¢	14.0%	4 of 17 (5 total TDs)	23.5%	+500 (16.7%)	+9.5% Edge
2+ Anytime TDs (Bo Nix)	1¢ / 2¢	2.0%	1 of 17 (Wk 7 vs NYG)	5.9%	+5500 (1.8%)	+3.9%

Critical Invariant: Throwing a touchdown does NOT count toward KXNFLTD. The player must physically cross the goal line. Nix scored rushing TDs in Weeks 4, 7 (2 TDs), 14, and 17.

Game Lines & Markets Week 1

@ Kansas City Chiefs

Mon 9/14 · 8:15 PM EDT · Arrowhead · MNF

MoneylineDEN +124 (KC -148)

SpreadDEN +3.0 (-120)

Total43.5 O/U (-105 / -115)

SurfaceNatural Grass · Outdoor

Inspect Live CLOB on /book →

QB Prop Market Rules Kalshi SSOT

Passing YDSKXNFLPASSYDS

Passing TDsKXNFLPASSTDS

Anytime TDKXNFLTD (Rush/Rec)

Kneel-DownsRush only · Pass 0% impact

OvertimeFully counted

Search Engine ArbitragepSEO GAP

Search queries like "Bo Nix passing yards per game Kalshi ladder" and "Bo Nix anytime TD implied prob" offer zero affiliate saturation. Exposing empirical hit rates vs no-vig CLOB pricing captures high-intent traffic.

QB Depth Chart DEN

StarterBo Nix #10

BackupJarrett Stidham #8

QB3Zach Wilson

Head CoachSean Payton

Bo Nix 2025 Game-by-Game Prop Log (All 17 Regular Season Starts) Verified NFL GSIS Tracking Mapped to Kalshi Contract Classes

Week	Opponent	Passing Yards (KXNFLPASSYDS)	Pass TDs (KXNFLPASSTDS)	Anytime TD (KXNFLTD)	Rushing Production	225+ YDS	250+ YDS	2+ Pass TDs
Week 1	vs TEN	176 YDS	1 TD	0	8 car, 18 yds	No	No	No
Week 2	@ IND	206 YDS	3 TDs	0	3 car, 20 yds	No	No	HIT
Week 3	@ LAC	153 YDS	1 TD	0	8 car, 33 yds	No	No	No
Week 4	vs CIN	326 YDS	2 TDs	1 Rush TD	6 car, 7 yds, 1 TD	HIT	HIT	HIT
Week 5	@ PHI	242 YDS	1 TD	0	3 car, 22 yds	HIT	No	No
Week 6	@ NYJ	174 YDS	1 TD	0	5 car, 24 yds	No	No	No
Week 7	vs NYG	279 YDS	2 TDs	2 Rush TDs	5 car, 48 yds, 2 TD	HIT	HIT	HIT
Week 8	vs DAL	247 YDS	4 TDs	0	1 car, -1 yds	HIT	No	HIT
Week 9	@ HOU	173 YDS	2 TDs	0	3 car, 36 yds	No	No	HIT
Week 10	vs LV	150 YDS	1 TD	0	5 car, -2 yds	No	No	No
Week 11	vs KC	295 YDS	0 TDs	0	3 car, 8 yds	HIT	HIT	No
Week 13	@ WAS	321 YDS	1 TD	0	2 car, 16 yds	HIT	HIT	No
Week 14	@ LV	212 YDS	0 TDs	1 Rush TD	3 car, 15 yds, 1 TD	No	No	No
Week 15	vs GB	302 YDS	4 TDs	0	7 car, 10 yds	HIT	HIT	HIT
Week 16	vs JAX	352 YDS	1 TD	0	4 car, 11 yds	HIT	HIT	No
Week 17	@ KC	182 YDS	1 TD	1 Rush TD	9 car, 42 yds, 1 TD	No	No	No
Week 18	vs LAC	141 YDS	0 TDs	0	8 car, 49 yds	No	No	No
Season Total	17 GP	3,931 YDS (231.2/G)	25 Pass TDs (1.47/G)	5 Rush TDs (4 GP)	83 car, 356 yds	8 of 17 (47.1%)	6 of 17 (35.3%)	6 of 17 (35.3%)

Postseason Addition: In the AFC Wild Card game at Buffalo, Nix added 279 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 0 INTs, and 12 carries for 29 yards.

Kalshi Level-2 Central Limit Order Book Depth Ticker: KXNFLPASSYDS-26SEP14DENKC-DENBNIX10-250 (250+ Passing Yards)

Side	Yes Price	Contracts Resting	Synthetic No Price	Depth Value	Liquidity Tier
Yes Ask (Sell Yes)	38¢	1,908	62¢ No Bid	$725.04	Top of Book (Heavy Pool)
Yes Ask	40¢	1,754	60¢ No Bid	$701.60	Level 2
Yes Ask	41¢	1,050	59¢ No Bid	$430.50	Level 3
Yes Ask	45¢	1,540	55¢ No Bid	$693.00	Level 4
Yes Bid (Buy Yes)	22¢	75	78¢ No Ask	$16.50	Top of Book
Yes Bid	21¢	345	79¢ No Ask	$72.45	Level 2
Yes Bid	17¢	227	83¢ No Ask	$38.59	Level 3
Yes Bid	5¢	50	95¢ No Ask	$2.50	Level 4

Order book state pulled directly from kalshi_get_order_book. On Kalshi binary markets, placing a limit bid on "No" at 62¢ automatically creates a 38¢ limit offer for "Yes". The 1,908-contract resting pool at 38¢ provides deep fill capacity without price slippage.

Exchange Settlement Invariants & Contract Specifications Official Kalshi Rules for NFL Passing Yards

Official Statistics Provider: Settlement is governed exclusively by the official NFL Game Statistics & Information System (GSIS) post-game audit.

Quarterback Kneel-Down Policy: Negative rushing yards on victory-formation kneel-downs deduct only from the QB's final rushing total; they have zero effect on passing yardage contracts.

Overtime Accounting: All passing yardage and touchdown production generated in overtime periods is fully included in final contract settlement.

TeamRankings.com Situational Passing Splits (Denver vs Kansas City) Team Passing Yards Per Game & Situational Splits

Team	2025 Rank	Full Season Avg	Last 3 Games	Home Split	Away Split	Passing TD/G
Denver Broncos	#13	220.4 YDS/G	168.3	234.0	201.8	1.5 TD/G
Kansas City Chiefs	#17	214.1 YDS/G	74.3	220.8	206.5	1.4 TD/G

TeamRankings Split Insight: Denver averaged 32.2 more passing yards per game at home (234.0) than on the road (201.8). Kansas City's defense allowed 206.5 passing yards per game at Arrowhead.

Week 1 Matchup Context Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs · Arrowhead Stadium

Kickoff: Monday, September 14, 2026 · 8:15 PM EDT · Monday Night Football (ESPN / ABC).

Defensive Scheme Matchup: Bo Nix faces Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy Kansas City defense. In 2025, Nix averaged 231.2 yards per game with a 58.3 QBR, relying heavily on quick-release perimeter concepts designed by Sean Payton.

Total Environment: Game total consensus is set at 43.5. Outdoor natural grass conditions at Arrowhead Stadium.