NCAA Football Week 2 · ACC Opener · Monday Night
#19 AP
SMU
Mustangs · 0-0
@
Mon, Sep 7
7:30 PM ET · ESPN
7:30 PM ET · ESPN
SMU -3
Florida State
Seminoles · 1-0
📍 Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL📺 ESPN🌡️ 87°F · 58% rain risk
Line Movement open → now
Spread
SMU -2.5→SMU -3
Moved toward SMU
Total
52.5→54.5
Ticked up 2 points
SMU Moneyline
-135→-155
SMU shortened
Odds DraftKings + Kalshi · updated 7:36 PM ET
DraftKings
Sportsbook
SpreadSMU -3-108
FSU +3-112
TotalOver 54.5-115
Under 54.5-105
MoneylineSMU-155
FSU+130
Kalshi
Prediction market
SMU wins — YesVol 4.48M58¢
FSU wins — YesVol 3.18M42¢
SMU bid / ask58 / 59
FSU bid / ask41 / 42
Open interestSMU / FSU4.3M / 2.9M
Win Chance DraftKings odds vs Kalshi price
Team
DraftKings
Kalshi
SMU
Florida St.
DraftKings and Kalshi land in the same spot: SMU around 58% to win. The sportsbook line and the prediction market price line up almost exactly — the two markets are reading this game the same way.
Where The Public Is ticket share
SMU 85%FSU 15%
SMU
FSU
The public is heavily on the road favorite — roughly 85% of tickets and an even larger share of the money are on SMU. The line moving toward SMU (-2.5 → -3) matches where the bets are going.
Matchup Read
SMU Mustangs (#19)
- Season opener; returns 66% of offensive production from 2025.
- QB Kevin Jennings back — 3,641 yds, 26 TD, 13 INT last year.
- Road favorite despite Week-0 rust; revamped WR corps is the early question.
- Wk-1 teams facing Wk-0 opponents have covered ~58% historically.
Florida State (1-0)
- Beat New Mexico State 34-17 in Week 0 but led by only 10 late.
- RB Ousmane Kromah popped: 115 yds, 8.2 YPC, TD.
- QB Ashton Daniels pressured 10x on 32 dropbacks; 9 missed tackles on D.
- Coming off back-to-back losing seasons (5-7 in 2025); home crowd factor.
OUR LEAN
Mustangs handle business as road favorites. The market, the money, and the model all point the same direction — SMU's returning offense against a leaky FSU secondary. The live variable is the weather: heavy rain in Tallahassee could drag this Under 54.5.
Game Environment
Temp
87°F
Rain Risk
58%
Wind
8 mph
Surface
Grass
Weather is the key totals driver. Storm and lightning-delay risk in Tallahassee could suppress the passing game — rain often pushes college totals toward the Under. Watch the forecast right up to kickoff.
Odds from DraftKings and Kalshi, with matchup data from ESPN. Odds move — verify before acting. Not financial advice.
MCP Truth · Pregame Template · SMU @ Florida State · updated Sep 7, 2026 · 7:36 PM ET